* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 26 31 39 44 45 42 38 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 26 31 39 44 45 42 38 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 27 28 27 25 22 21 21 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 12 6 3 3 13 24 36 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 5 7 3 -2 0 0 0 3 6 7 SHEAR DIR 203 216 218 228 236 230 174 238 237 219 223 220 236 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 142 144 147 151 151 151 149 148 151 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 67 68 66 67 66 66 69 72 74 71 59 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 15 15 16 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 3 13 17 15 14 20 30 10 18 16 8 5 200 MB DIV 42 50 68 79 82 54 34 92 61 63 62 57 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1085 1014 970 948 947 927 899 870 809 683 488 313 231 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.9 15.8 18.0 19.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 110.3 109.7 109.3 109.1 109.1 109.3 109.6 110.0 110.2 109.6 108.5 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 3 1 2 2 4 7 11 11 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 18 16 14 17 24 35 22 13 13 29 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 6. 14. 19. 20. 17. 13. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 111.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.43 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.3% 3.6% 1.9% 0.2% 5.4% 8.8% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 0.8% 11.1% 5.9% 0.7% 0.1% 7.5% 9.2% 5.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##