* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVES EP932019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 15 16 16 17 20 24 27 29 29 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 15 15 16 16 17 20 24 27 29 29 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 10 15 24 28 34 38 39 41 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -1 -1 -3 0 5 7 SHEAR DIR 44 350 357 62 80 127 132 125 104 85 74 64 59 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.3 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 28.2 29.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 147 145 146 140 144 145 141 146 155 161 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 4 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 66 67 66 66 62 58 60 67 73 76 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -27 -25 -24 -31 -24 -15 10 34 59 34 17 38 200 MB DIV 80 108 105 65 41 61 34 26 74 101 75 97 43 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -14 -14 -9 0 7 12 12 -1 -21 -4 LAND (KM) 1078 1072 1033 940 821 621 620 639 760 863 830 630 394 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.9 14.9 16.0 17.6 17.3 15.7 13.7 12.1 11.6 12.7 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.6 112.8 112.9 112.8 111.9 110.6 109.6 109.0 108.2 106.8 104.9 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 10 10 7 8 10 10 8 9 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 27 19 13 11 7 10 15 18 15 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 27/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -10. -17. -23. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 12.7 112.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVES 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 12.0% 6.5% 2.1% 0.8% 2.0% 3.8% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVES 09/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##