* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 11/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 20 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 24 25 26 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 29 24 26 32 36 46 46 59 60 54 51 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 4 1 2 4 6 -4 -1 2 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 258 255 245 240 249 261 263 268 277 275 274 282 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.6 30.1 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.1 25.3 19.9 17.1 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 162 167 118 123 126 126 121 69 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -55.2 -56.5 -57.3 -58.2 -59.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 5 6 7 10 9 8 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 58 57 53 53 51 47 42 37 35 35 54 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 46 49 55 24 2 -54 -61 -139 -131 -65 6 200 MB DIV 52 9 11 5 -3 13 12 31 21 36 46 66 89 700-850 TADV 11 1 -1 0 0 9 31 1 29 19 19 20 33 LAND (KM) 296 184 89 -26 -161 -109 212 230 278 363 -74 369 904 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.7 20.9 21.9 23.6 26.3 29.7 33.0 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 103.9 102.6 101.3 100.1 97.6 94.8 92.3 90.3 87.4 82.0 73.1 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 14 13 14 14 11 15 24 35 47 52 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 23 20 16 3 9 10 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -18. -34. -50. -62. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -30. -37. -44. -50. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 104.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 11/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 11/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX