* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 24 23 21 21 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 24 23 21 21 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 20 18 19 22 11 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 -2 -3 1 5 6 0 -2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 236 235 209 180 161 172 181 191 196 233 259 326 316 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.1 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 141 138 133 120 113 118 120 124 132 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 83 81 77 67 59 52 41 35 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 15 28 46 58 64 50 42 48 41 42 36 37 200 MB DIV 53 37 58 104 111 70 56 -8 -37 -13 -25 -38 -42 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 6 5 6 4 2 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2307 2338 2333 2299 2260 2180 2104 2067 2068 2099 2206 2225 2088 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.8 14.1 15.1 16.1 16.8 16.6 15.6 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.3 127.8 128.1 128.3 128.7 129.0 129.6 130.6 131.6 132.7 134.2 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 5 7 7 5 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 17 13 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 126.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 3.9% 4.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX