* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 10/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 26 28 28 26 23 18 17 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 26 28 28 26 23 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 21 20 22 22 23 27 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 4 4 5 0 0 1 8 8 9 8 SHEAR DIR 266 257 248 237 226 233 196 187 174 178 180 226 258 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.2 24.4 25.3 26.1 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 143 145 142 138 125 106 115 123 128 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.8 -54.9 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 74 78 79 81 76 68 64 61 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 11 12 11 10 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -7 -8 -4 23 56 61 48 34 29 13 6 200 MB DIV 46 60 45 45 67 82 77 52 70 53 30 -16 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 5 4 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1934 1993 2034 2066 2077 2081 2065 2066 2037 2020 2028 2073 2166 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 11.0 12.3 13.7 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.4 125.6 126.8 128.1 129.1 130.0 131.0 132.3 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 19 16 12 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 121.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 21.6% 8.2% 4.8% 1.0% 2.4% 0.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 13.3% 7.8% 1.6% 0.3% 5.0% 4.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 10/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX