* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 34 41 48 53 56 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 34 41 48 53 56 61 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 33 33 32 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 13 12 11 7 5 0 3 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 3 2 5 5 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 81 71 66 61 57 50 90 130 236 27 51 82 96 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.5 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 145 141 145 145 143 147 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 65 63 62 62 65 67 66 67 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 17 13 2 -8 -13 -15 -25 -32 -29 -25 -28 200 MB DIV 16 33 26 20 28 21 6 -16 1 -10 11 24 5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 798 813 854 921 998 1154 1346 1529 1664 1816 1954 2057 2160 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.5 7.9 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.8 101.3 102.8 104.3 107.1 109.7 112.0 114.1 116.3 118.6 120.8 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 14 14 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 17 14 14 22 29 13 14 48 33 22 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 10. 9. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 21. 28. 33. 36. 41. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 98.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 39.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 13.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX