* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 47 57 63 63 66 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 47 57 63 63 66 70 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 32 37 41 47 54 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 8 10 11 14 18 19 15 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 3 6 6 2 5 4 1 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 1 349 351 354 4 23 46 56 66 67 53 42 46 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 169 168 168 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 167 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 78 77 72 71 70 71 72 72 73 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -26 -20 -17 -34 -16 -10 7 10 43 43 87 200 MB DIV 109 85 73 90 77 48 24 38 39 12 40 38 71 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 340 297 270 258 251 234 224 205 167 128 73 22 -36 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.4 100.7 100.9 101.2 101.5 101.5 101.3 100.9 100.7 100.6 100.6 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 23 26 19 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 13. 22. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 22. 32. 38. 38. 41. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 100.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 25.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##