* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 34 40 45 50 52 55 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 34 40 45 50 52 55 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 25 24 19 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 11 10 13 9 11 SHEAR DIR 40 39 46 51 51 45 47 39 51 56 21 360 326 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 166 168 166 165 163 164 163 163 166 169 172 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 84 85 82 83 80 74 75 72 75 73 74 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 11 12 4 -12 -19 -23 -11 3 11 13 40 200 MB DIV 91 76 68 77 90 50 58 50 111 79 91 88 88 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -7 -1 0 -2 -6 -9 -12 -23 LAND (KM) 420 399 385 360 336 298 256 265 295 312 259 223 232 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.1 15.7 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.8 16.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 99.2 100.1 100.9 101.5 102.6 102.8 102.8 102.7 103.0 103.6 104.9 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 1 2 2 2 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 51 58 53 42 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 98.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.43 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.8% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##