* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 39 42 47 50 52 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 39 42 47 50 52 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 37 38 39 39 40 41 42 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 22 24 22 21 25 29 28 24 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 7 7 5 4 12 4 7 9 11 13 SHEAR DIR 49 46 48 47 57 53 33 42 37 41 36 14 7 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 161 165 165 164 164 164 163 162 165 168 171 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 86 83 81 77 77 74 75 69 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 1 7 13 16 -11 -2 -18 -14 2 17 29 200 MB DIV 75 106 118 107 87 98 57 94 49 77 89 96 81 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -7 -8 -5 -6 -11 -15 -5 -1 -4 -9 -14 LAND (KM) 529 536 533 534 528 465 404 336 302 292 256 178 108 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.7 16.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 100.8 101.9 102.8 103.2 103.1 102.8 102.9 103.4 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 2 1 3 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 35 44 50 49 38 33 32 32 32 32 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 97.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.4% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 16.6% 5.2% 2.5% 0.4% 4.5% 8.0% 16.2% Bayesian: 4.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 6.7% 15.1% 8.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 2.7% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##