* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 27 32 35 41 43 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 27 32 35 41 43 43 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 16 19 23 23 22 26 30 27 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 6 6 4 10 2 7 10 9 SHEAR DIR 64 62 37 37 43 50 39 35 46 38 41 31 1 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.3 29.9 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 162 166 168 163 167 164 163 164 166 169 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 84 86 85 86 85 84 82 77 79 74 74 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 8 7 5 5 6 6 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 -5 5 11 26 14 0 3 0 13 13 31 200 MB DIV 78 75 70 105 128 109 93 61 109 93 69 72 79 700-850 TADV 0 2 -3 -8 -10 -8 -11 -9 -8 -1 -6 -10 -12 LAND (KM) 490 500 500 507 506 492 448 404 329 318 304 261 208 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.1 97.2 98.2 99.2 100.9 102.2 103.3 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.9 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 2 0 1 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 32 49 63 48 39 38 37 36 35 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 33. 37. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 15. 21. 23. 23. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 95.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 3.4% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##