* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 36 34 31 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 36 34 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 15 13 10 7 2 5 12 13 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 2 7 17 27 23 33 63 95 233 197 208 208 228 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.2 28.1 26.3 24.2 23.1 22.1 22.5 22.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 166 161 158 147 128 106 95 83 87 85 91 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 69 69 69 68 62 63 54 52 47 42 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -17 -10 4 -5 -5 -2 14 18 17 0 -22 -23 200 MB DIV 33 30 40 47 29 17 29 19 0 7 3 6 -4 700-850 TADV 2 0 -5 -5 1 -1 1 -1 8 12 16 13 12 LAND (KM) 305 370 449 523 495 570 655 770 884 1028 1175 1256 1375 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.6 24.9 25.6 26.0 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.7 109.0 110.3 111.6 114.3 117.1 119.7 122.5 124.8 126.9 128.8 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 19 17 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 106.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.2% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 4.3% 0.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 9.6% 7.5% 0.6% 0.2% 7.1% 6.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##