* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 05/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 28 35 45 52 57 62 64 67 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 19 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 6 9 11 8 8 8 5 5 3 0 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -3 -5 -1 -5 -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 89 102 101 64 77 103 90 115 70 67 25 154 206 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 167 164 157 150 149 148 147 143 134 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 11 9 8 10 7 9 7 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 74 76 77 80 83 82 81 76 73 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 7 9 7 6 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 75 84 82 77 75 73 79 84 89 86 87 200 MB DIV 87 101 107 114 97 93 56 70 68 98 68 58 42 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -5 -3 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 141 92 55 20 -14 -49 -60 -66 -83 -129 -161 -246 -240 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 94.5 94.3 94.2 94.1 94.0 94.0 94.2 94.6 95.5 96.9 98.6 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 0 1 2 3 6 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 33 29 23 19 17 16 15 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 15. 25. 32. 37. 42. 44. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 94.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 14.4% 8.9% 3.2% 2.9% 18.5% 67.7% 59.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 8.0% Consensus: 0.6% 5.1% 3.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.2% 22.7% 22.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##