* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 05/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 45 53 60 63 66 67 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 45 41 34 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 10 11 12 9 14 9 1 3 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 -5 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 93 91 95 86 96 80 100 83 92 322 127 33 125 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.4 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 168 168 168 166 158 158 154 153 151 146 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -51.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 8 10 7 10 7 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 72 75 81 85 83 81 76 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 10 8 9 7 7 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 50 55 73 81 90 91 88 84 85 93 101 200 MB DIV 68 75 107 111 129 82 105 106 109 67 87 77 79 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -2 -3 -6 0 0 0 1 3 -3 2 LAND (KM) 190 156 119 81 64 24 -13 -18 -29 -46 -67 -148 -158 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.1 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.3 94.9 94.5 94.0 94.1 95.0 96.5 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 35 36 33 25 25 22 20 16 12 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 20. 28. 35. 38. 41. 42. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 96.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.58 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.9% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 22.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 10.2% 8.1% 2.6% 1.6% 10.9% 31.7% 35.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 32.8% Consensus: 0.6% 12.6% 11.1% 1.0% 0.6% 11.3% 18.3% 22.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 05/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##