* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 22 18 9 12 24 39 43 47 45 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 2 4 1 3 5 7 6 4 6 8 SHEAR DIR 318 320 316 322 287 242 205 212 203 217 223 235 248 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.0 27.1 25.8 25.4 23.0 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 132 131 135 133 134 121 116 91 93 92 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 49 48 46 41 37 33 29 30 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 21 16 11 7 0 -24 -37 -47 -31 -28 -32 -20 200 MB DIV 33 30 16 19 41 53 41 16 33 5 15 21 13 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 1 3 1 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1551 1582 1606 1627 1625 1557 1424 1293 1175 1073 947 785 592 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.8 14.3 15.9 17.6 19.1 20.7 21.8 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.4 119.6 119.7 120.0 120.1 120.2 120.1 120.3 120.6 120.7 120.4 119.3 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 7 7 9 8 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 7 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -13. -23. -31. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -26. -32. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 119.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX