* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 29 32 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 29 32 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 5 10 11 11 5 16 28 36 41 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 6 4 SHEAR DIR 138 235 282 300 319 301 300 217 195 187 197 203 224 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.0 26.7 26.4 27.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 136 136 136 142 143 130 126 132 110 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.9 -54.3 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 54 52 48 45 48 45 38 33 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 21 16 2 23 12 -3 -14 -35 -36 -39 -16 200 MB DIV 65 50 32 33 29 43 49 49 28 9 16 6 -11 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 0 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1476 1448 1442 1439 1453 1440 1400 1329 1210 1101 990 876 779 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.9 14.2 15.6 17.1 18.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 117.8 117.7 117.5 117.4 117.0 116.8 116.9 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.4 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 11 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 7. 8. 2. -5. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 118.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.5% 8.4% 4.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 12.5% 9.3% 1.6% 0.4% 5.4% 5.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX