* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 11/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 51 58 63 64 67 66 55 45 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 51 58 63 64 67 66 55 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 47 47 45 41 34 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 7 5 4 5 7 8 2 13 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 9 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 99 71 68 77 77 64 3 328 342 153 192 202 208 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 133 137 140 142 142 140 140 139 141 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 64 63 60 56 56 51 54 49 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 24 15 17 17 -1 6 -5 -23 -47 -46 -50 200 MB DIV 105 126 113 85 59 37 2 1 4 14 13 9 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 1 3 LAND (KM) 1626 1637 1661 1694 1728 1790 1838 1869 1855 1805 1688 1552 1443 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.7 9.9 11.4 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.9 120.0 120.1 120.2 120.2 119.8 119.2 118.6 118.2 118.2 118.3 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 4 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 10 12 15 20 23 22 21 22 19 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 26. 33. 38. 39. 42. 41. 30. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 119.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 24.6% 14.6% 9.3% 2.5% 16.2% 18.0% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 17.2% 13.0% 3.3% 0.8% 12.0% 13.1% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX