* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 12 11 7 6 14 16 15 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 245 251 260 273 287 250 230 221 238 226 250 286 339 SST (C) 28.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.9 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 157 156 154 150 142 145 139 131 126 129 136 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 68 69 74 76 77 72 69 63 59 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -46 -41 -37 -28 -7 0 27 14 23 17 15 5 200 MB DIV 18 26 42 33 19 55 57 110 108 120 49 19 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1022 1095 1165 1226 1290 1319 1332 1330 1330 1360 1377 1430 1547 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.2 15.6 15.9 15.7 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.4 111.8 113.0 114.1 116.0 117.7 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.5 122.0 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 26 33 35 28 12 12 13 5 2 3 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -20. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -4. -1. 0. -1. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX