* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 18 17 18 20 21 18 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 18 17 18 20 21 18 16 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 15 16 13 12 21 31 28 20 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 0 1 4 2 0 2 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 238 247 250 259 270 271 228 210 233 238 243 247 248 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.5 28.0 28.1 26.2 25.6 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 152 158 159 152 139 144 144 124 117 126 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.1 -55.1 -54.3 -55.0 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 65 66 67 72 75 68 65 59 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -46 -48 -46 -40 -14 -11 10 18 15 18 10 5 200 MB DIV 21 15 23 37 33 52 58 113 106 96 64 55 14 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 905 958 1013 1065 1125 1187 1188 1167 1120 1131 1191 1296 1461 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.3 15.7 16.9 17.5 17.9 17.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.4 109.8 111.1 112.4 114.7 116.7 118.1 119.0 119.9 121.1 122.4 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 6 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 22 39 39 31 13 22 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 17. 24. 29. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. -5. -11. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -4. -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.0% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 5.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX