* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 29 29 30 33 33 35 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 29 29 30 33 33 35 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 29 26 24 22 20 19 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 14 11 10 11 8 11 15 9 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 4 3 1 1 3 0 -1 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 251 256 252 250 250 270 290 262 222 221 205 204 233 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 141 143 145 154 146 140 133 128 132 134 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 65 64 68 70 75 81 86 85 84 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -31 -35 -41 -41 -29 -25 1 16 25 11 18 0 200 MB DIV 4 5 21 28 33 35 16 41 87 142 118 110 42 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 1 4 1 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 797 848 899 949 1011 1148 1270 1297 1379 1439 1484 1460 1436 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 8 4 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 7 7 15 32 31 13 8 6 6 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 103.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.23 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.4% 13.3% 8.7% 5.2% 13.5% 15.8% 10.5% Logistic: 2.0% 13.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 3.6% 7.0% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 4.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.0% 10.7% 6.0% 3.6% 1.9% 6.0% 9.0% 11.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX