* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 28 29 29 30 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 28 29 29 30 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 14 13 11 12 12 14 25 30 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 8 5 0 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 252 260 265 262 259 276 267 231 211 226 223 232 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 28.9 28.6 28.2 26.6 25.9 26.1 24.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 145 141 141 155 152 147 130 122 124 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -55.5 -54.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 68 68 66 68 69 70 74 69 66 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -24 -28 -30 -33 -26 -13 -6 10 -9 -12 -38 200 MB DIV 3 -5 2 24 39 52 57 36 54 85 81 33 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 1 3 0 0 2 0 -1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 781 830 889 935 976 1063 1149 1131 1077 1017 946 942 1045 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.4 12.5 13.9 15.4 17.1 18.7 19.8 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.8 106.3 107.7 110.5 113.0 115.0 116.5 117.6 118.7 119.7 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 14 15 13 13 11 10 9 9 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 12 10 7 31 40 25 13 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 102.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.2% 13.4% 8.6% 5.3% 13.2% 16.3% 10.6% Logistic: 4.7% 28.5% 8.7% 5.0% 0.6% 6.0% 6.0% 17.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.3% 0.3% Consensus: 3.4% 15.8% 7.4% 4.5% 2.0% 6.7% 8.2% 9.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX