* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 21 20 18 16 15 18 21 23 22 18 17 V (KT) LAND 25 24 21 20 18 16 15 18 21 23 22 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 11 12 13 11 16 17 28 37 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 6 3 0 2 1 4 4 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 212 232 251 253 241 263 266 271 254 208 216 224 217 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.6 26.9 26.0 25.6 24.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 149 143 147 150 154 151 133 124 120 106 110 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 65 62 63 63 63 65 65 69 77 72 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -22 -26 -30 -33 -32 -31 -20 -11 -5 4 -22 -21 200 MB DIV 22 1 -10 4 32 26 59 37 35 104 102 19 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 1 5 4 1 4 LAND (KM) 704 742 790 824 870 970 1055 1102 1075 1042 984 1015 1072 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.2 16.9 18.6 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.9 104.2 105.6 107.0 109.7 112.1 114.4 116.2 117.7 119.1 120.7 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 9 6 6 27 35 40 13 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -7. -4. -2. -3. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 101.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 5.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 4.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX