* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 26 25 24 23 26 31 34 35 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 26 25 24 23 26 31 34 35 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 7 7 10 8 9 9 10 12 17 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 9 10 8 4 0 3 4 5 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 189 203 221 241 261 257 285 275 289 256 230 221 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 28.2 29.0 28.9 27.3 26.3 25.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 145 147 147 143 147 155 154 137 127 123 109 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 66 66 68 66 66 70 76 77 76 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -20 -21 -19 -16 -26 -30 -34 -26 -11 -13 -25 -38 200 MB DIV 10 22 13 0 -2 27 25 67 27 51 77 51 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 4 5 4 0 LAND (KM) 659 700 744 808 855 938 1026 1105 1189 1144 1076 1013 954 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.9 14.2 15.9 17.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.8 101.8 103.0 104.3 107.0 109.5 111.8 114.0 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 6 8 7 16 31 43 18 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 1. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 100.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.1% 4.0% 2.4% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 10.1% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX