* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 10/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 21 25 27 28 25 22 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 21 25 27 28 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 7 7 8 9 10 16 13 18 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 10 10 7 2 1 2 5 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 187 194 217 239 261 247 244 244 262 266 236 223 228 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.3 27.6 27.9 29.0 28.8 27.7 27.1 26.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 142 147 148 141 144 155 153 142 135 128 111 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -55.1 -55.1 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 65 65 66 66 69 73 75 77 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -23 -21 -21 -28 -33 -27 -21 -9 -13 -16 -40 200 MB DIV 4 15 29 24 4 10 32 37 53 60 73 76 31 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 1 0 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 632 670 707 756 810 890 982 1063 1183 1161 1126 1064 1007 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.8 15.3 17.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.3 101.2 102.3 103.5 106.2 108.8 111.2 113.5 115.4 117.1 118.4 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 13 13 11 12 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 5 7 6 10 33 42 24 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. 0. 2. 3. 0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 99.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 10/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 17.9% 6.1% 3.2% 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 10.1% 6.1% 1.1% 0.1% 4.9% 4.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 10/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX