* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 54 61 69 74 75 68 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 54 61 69 74 75 68 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 42 46 49 49 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 13 11 8 8 9 6 5 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 2 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 49 51 53 62 63 93 86 59 44 63 78 159 201 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 25.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 157 157 156 151 145 141 138 134 120 102 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 69 65 58 55 53 55 53 52 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 18 22 25 26 28 30 29 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 55 54 63 100 97 98 88 88 96 71 67 200 MB DIV 64 79 61 52 56 72 37 35 15 5 -15 -14 2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 -6 -4 1 0 LAND (KM) 923 925 933 931 939 982 1037 1108 1168 1201 1185 1092 1069 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.8 21.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.6 114.4 115.2 116.1 117.8 119.5 120.7 121.6 122.2 122.7 123.3 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 23 18 11 10 15 15 13 9 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 9. 17. 24. 29. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. 22. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 29. 36. 44. 49. 50. 43. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 112.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 3.5% 4.0% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.9% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 6.0% 7.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX