* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 52 62 70 73 72 68 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 52 62 70 73 72 68 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 49 51 50 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 13 11 9 12 10 9 10 5 3 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 3 3 3 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 36 42 50 47 41 51 88 80 86 83 110 167 184 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.5 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 157 155 155 153 154 149 135 127 120 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 75 72 65 62 60 58 54 46 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 15 18 20 22 23 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 24 35 42 52 51 55 84 79 87 75 81 89 81 200 MB DIV 52 67 66 73 67 51 56 64 56 11 -9 -24 -19 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 802 880 912 938 981 1038 1077 1035 945 970 1072 1209 1298 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.5 19.0 20.3 20.9 21.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.9 113.0 114.1 115.1 116.8 118.0 118.5 119.0 120.4 122.4 124.5 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 7 8 10 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 26 26 19 12 7 8 14 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 37. 45. 48. 47. 43. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 110.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.42 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 8.0% 12.7% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% 9.4% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.6% 10.1% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX