* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 39 46 55 63 65 65 62 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 39 46 55 63 65 65 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 44 48 51 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 14 13 8 10 10 17 17 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 2 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 33 36 44 51 52 37 74 77 83 88 102 105 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 160 158 156 152 151 152 153 152 146 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 78 76 72 68 66 65 64 61 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 31 36 37 47 54 67 61 73 61 63 52 200 MB DIV 15 24 38 43 59 61 52 50 25 41 22 11 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 647 699 773 876 909 1017 1126 1160 1121 1007 921 922 980 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.6 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.3 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.6 110.7 112.0 113.2 115.4 117.1 117.9 118.1 117.9 118.1 119.0 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 10 6 3 5 5 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 25 27 17 14 13 9 6 12 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 30. 38. 40. 40. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 108.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 8.0% 25.8% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 0.2% 7.7% 5.6% 0.3% 0.2% 7.6% 14.5% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX