* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 25 32 40 52 63 69 70 71 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 25 32 40 52 63 69 70 71 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 35 39 41 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 13 13 9 9 9 16 19 15 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 -1 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 43 38 36 34 41 70 56 63 77 89 77 94 83 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 162 160 158 155 153 152 153 154 153 148 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 78 79 76 71 70 69 70 66 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 10 12 14 16 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 16 28 34 42 46 59 59 61 63 65 49 200 MB DIV 23 30 32 39 46 77 57 67 45 46 33 -6 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 640 691 760 842 943 1027 1114 1157 1151 1086 1029 1029 1104 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.9 110.1 111.2 112.4 114.5 116.1 117.3 118.0 118.3 118.8 119.8 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 22 24 28 18 14 14 12 7 10 22 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 32. 43. 49. 50. 51. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 5.8% 20.7% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 6.9% 6.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX