* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 34 44 54 64 71 78 80 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 34 44 54 64 71 78 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 34 39 46 53 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 13 13 14 7 13 12 20 21 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 56 46 45 44 43 72 75 65 61 67 80 81 89 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 164 162 159 155 152 149 150 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 78 78 76 73 70 73 75 76 74 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 32 34 35 49 54 46 61 59 61 64 72 200 MB DIV 43 20 18 35 48 50 55 62 80 43 81 38 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -1 3 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 528 549 589 653 749 909 1057 1231 1312 1296 1157 1029 959 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.0 14.4 14.1 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 108.0 109.2 110.5 113.2 115.6 117.5 118.3 118.2 117.3 116.9 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 12 12 13 13 11 6 2 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 27 24 29 14 13 13 13 13 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -1. 7. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 24. 34. 44. 51. 58. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 19.2% 8.6% 4.5% 2.3% 23.1% 37.1% 32.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.7% 7.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 7.9% 13.1% 11.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX