* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 44 54 64 72 78 78 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 44 54 64 72 78 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 43 48 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 14 15 11 13 15 14 19 21 24 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 74 56 46 49 66 50 80 52 39 64 84 88 90 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 164 162 158 155 151 151 156 159 156 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 80 79 79 77 76 74 74 77 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 24 27 27 32 33 37 44 49 58 76 76 200 MB DIV 65 51 37 40 38 29 49 92 112 62 72 47 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 509 524 562 652 761 966 1174 1362 1382 1185 865 661 621 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.4 14.9 14.0 12.8 12.4 13.6 16.2 18.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 108.0 109.4 110.8 113.6 116.0 117.3 117.0 115.5 114.2 114.5 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 14 14 14 11 5 5 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 27 26 24 22 13 11 12 14 33 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -1. 7. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 24. 34. 44. 52. 58. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 13.6% 6.9% 3.0% 1.4% 16.2% 33.6% 34.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 2.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 5.5% 11.5% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX