* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 09/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 38 49 57 63 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 38 49 57 63 68 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 30 33 37 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 16 18 19 16 21 15 18 16 22 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 68 75 69 58 54 48 55 58 42 67 79 104 84 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 158 155 152 149 153 156 158 155 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 80 79 78 74 75 73 74 74 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 12 12 13 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -3 -4 0 3 18 31 44 65 72 99 92 200 MB DIV 40 37 33 35 37 32 27 92 101 75 60 55 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 661 700 757 840 923 1114 1246 1277 1206 1037 850 786 832 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.1 12.5 12.4 13.1 14.7 16.8 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.1 109.1 110.2 111.2 113.1 114.4 114.9 114.9 114.7 114.9 116.0 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 8 5 2 6 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 31 30 35 30 15 12 15 15 20 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 18. 29. 37. 43. 48. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 107.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 09/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 8.3% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 2.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 09/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX