* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 78 85 88 83 80 73 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 78 85 88 83 80 73 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 64 76 82 79 72 63 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 13 14 9 7 8 12 11 7 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 6 1 1 2 -2 4 2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 33 18 19 26 29 4 92 78 61 50 44 46 339 SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 168 165 158 149 142 137 131 122 113 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 86 85 85 82 79 77 74 68 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 25 29 30 31 29 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -1 -5 -10 6 16 3 22 45 62 63 59 46 200 MB DIV 121 169 182 154 118 112 155 99 134 100 66 9 8 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -13 -10 -8 -13 -9 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 534 517 500 478 437 404 408 421 456 474 473 455 370 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 60 64 43 17 10 7 6 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 63.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. -0. 6. 13. 20. 25. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 9. 15. 16. 18. 15. 14. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 33. 48. 55. 58. 53. 50. 43. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 101.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.47 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.96 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -26.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.93 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 46.0% 24.7% 20.7% 0.0% 26.5% 48.3% 0.0% Logistic: 19.4% 68.3% 45.3% 26.9% 15.7% 64.6% 69.3% 48.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 48.6% 18.4% 7.4% 3.4% 14.4% 72.9% 27.0% Consensus: 13.8% 54.3% 29.5% 18.4% 6.4% 35.1% 63.5% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##