* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 55 65 77 84 87 86 81 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 55 65 77 84 87 86 81 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 48 54 61 65 62 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 23 21 22 15 10 4 10 15 15 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 8 8 4 6 2 -3 -1 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 24 50 44 36 31 357 351 138 73 38 34 18 40 SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.8 30.9 29.6 27.4 27.1 28.4 27.2 23.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 168 167 170 173 164 141 135 149 139 98 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 7 8 7 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 87 87 86 86 85 81 78 74 65 74 76 65 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 17 18 20 23 23 25 27 30 31 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -32 -27 -29 -26 -9 40 30 71 26 45 48 51 200 MB DIV 116 124 137 189 150 102 88 125 128 132 101 29 19 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -11 -14 -13 -7 -9 -7 -3 -1 -2 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 546 613 660 675 621 370 197 334 677 683 353 276 523 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.6 13.9 16.4 17.7 16.4 15.0 17.8 20.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 101.6 102.2 102.3 102.0 101.6 103.6 107.6 110.6 109.5 107.9 110.7 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 4 2 7 14 18 20 11 11 18 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 43 43 42 39 21 6 11 14 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 29. 32. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 18. 20. 23. 23. 21. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 30. 40. 52. 59. 62. 61. 56. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 100.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -14.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##