* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 57 67 76 82 83 83 77 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 57 67 76 82 83 83 77 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 42 48 56 64 69 71 69 65 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 11 14 17 18 8 9 9 8 10 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 4 3 7 2 3 -2 -4 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 319 311 335 9 41 11 352 342 174 76 54 51 7 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.1 29.0 27.3 26.7 26.2 24.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 167 156 137 128 124 108 92 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 87 88 87 86 82 81 75 71 69 64 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 14 17 19 22 23 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -10 -13 -10 12 1 30 29 50 46 53 37 200 MB DIV 62 111 108 124 142 129 68 123 158 122 83 40 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -11 -10 -13 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 467 468 465 452 446 411 336 283 360 520 497 389 278 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.5 15.0 16.6 17.7 17.5 18.0 19.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.3 98.3 99.2 100.1 101.6 103.2 105.4 107.9 109.6 109.7 110.1 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 10 12 13 11 4 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 27 36 41 45 41 13 7 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 29. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 37. 46. 52. 53. 53. 47. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 96.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -33.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/08/18 18 UTC ##