* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922018 06/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 30 43 51 59 66 72 74 72 69 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 30 43 51 59 66 72 74 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 33 36 39 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 10 14 19 27 25 23 11 2 12 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 1 0 5 5 2 3 6 1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 333 344 3 42 54 47 28 1 332 170 54 72 47 SST (C) 30.8 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.7 30.8 29.8 27.8 25.6 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 171 167 170 172 166 146 121 129 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -53.1 -51.8 -52.2 -50.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 86 86 86 85 83 80 77 66 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 15 18 21 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 -29 -34 -44 -42 -34 8 13 36 80 74 39 200 MB DIV 58 61 108 114 124 187 130 77 89 113 75 74 73 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 -8 -8 -8 -4 -7 -10 -3 0 LAND (KM) 419 441 479 539 603 698 640 428 206 218 517 705 731 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.1 11.5 13.5 16.2 18.3 18.3 17.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.2 99.4 100.6 101.6 102.6 102.2 102.0 103.3 106.7 110.8 112.5 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 9 2 7 12 17 21 15 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 36 39 43 50 49 52 29 11 0 2 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 13. 24. 32. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 10. 23. 31. 39. 46. 52. 54. 52. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 97.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922018 INVEST 06/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.7 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -16.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922018 INVEST 06/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##