* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 10/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 48 42 36 35 34 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 47 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 15 12 14 23 17 12 8 10 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 6 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -4 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 43 43 58 73 94 139 172 212 213 205 212 249 256 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 158 161 162 151 154 161 164 161 162 163 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 83 82 78 76 75 72 73 66 66 62 63 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 13 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 71 67 53 43 25 -10 -33 -31 -28 -22 -20 -19 200 MB DIV 123 129 123 96 83 82 74 14 -4 6 0 25 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 2 -7 -15 -11 -2 0 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 292 280 240 193 124 -7 -124 -132 -29 -24 -19 -61 -178 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.8 14.4 15.4 15.7 15.7 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.3 89.7 90.2 90.7 91.2 92.0 91.5 90.2 89.0 88.5 88.6 89.4 90.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 8 6 6 4 1 2 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 9 13 16 21 36 43 47 51 51 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -8. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 7. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.5 89.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 10/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 10/27/17 06 UTC ## ##