* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 10/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 43 45 41 37 36 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 43 45 36 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 9 10 11 15 18 14 11 10 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 1 3 3 1 -4 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 26 50 60 66 85 125 169 191 205 202 180 219 239 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 158 161 153 146 144 146 149 149 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -54.2 -53.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 4 5 3 4 2 4 2 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 85 83 82 77 76 75 75 73 69 69 68 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 17 17 14 11 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 74 68 55 33 9 -6 -13 -20 -18 -12 -14 200 MB DIV 132 144 136 124 112 65 75 72 30 0 16 30 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 0 -3 -6 -10 -1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 260 289 266 230 204 76 19 -4 -49 -78 -87 -127 -160 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.0 13.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 89.0 89.6 90.2 90.9 92.1 92.9 92.8 92.3 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 9 9 4 2 2 1 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 10 14 16 13 4 25 29 32 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 16. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 88.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 10/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 10/27/17 00 UTC ## ##