* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 10/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 28 31 44 52 51 47 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 28 31 44 52 45 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 23 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 1 1 6 11 18 21 15 10 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 7 0 6 4 1 -2 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 128 273 258 81 263 71 117 162 173 186 177 172 214 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 28.6 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 158 160 148 153 159 157 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -54.0 -53.0 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 2 5 4 4 2 4 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 85 82 85 84 82 77 75 74 72 70 67 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 14 14 17 17 12 8 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 81 68 68 64 38 14 -6 -10 -10 -3 8 200 MB DIV 89 120 125 123 138 127 98 96 60 8 8 18 26 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 2 -1 -5 -9 -7 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 82 136 221 266 280 237 106 -8 -75 -100 -103 -100 -124 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.7 10.7 11.6 13.1 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.7 88.4 89.0 89.7 90.8 91.6 92.1 91.4 90.4 90.0 90.5 91.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 7 6 6 9 8 4 5 4 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 7 11 16 3 31 38 40 37 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 11. 5. -0. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 11. 24. 33. 31. 27. 22. 21. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 87.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 10/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 10.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 10/26/17 12 UTC ## ##