* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 08/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 43 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 43 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 16 20 18 24 21 11 17 17 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 2 -2 -2 2 0 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 80 84 74 72 75 70 84 89 87 94 101 110 SST (C) 30.0 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 26.4 24.8 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 160 154 150 147 146 146 131 114 110 114 114 117 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 76 73 68 59 52 44 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 59 58 51 49 59 59 42 42 56 72 70 59 200 MB DIV 61 68 73 72 72 69 18 0 5 -21 -15 -7 22 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -1 5 3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 268 408 500 550 571 535 517 647 947 1300 1717 2088 2040 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.0 17.9 18.5 20.1 21.6 22.1 21.7 20.3 19.0 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 109.1 110.1 110.8 111.3 112.1 114.0 117.6 122.0 126.0 129.8 133.1 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 12 9 6 4 8 16 20 20 18 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 38 20 15 18 20 21 8 1 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 259 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 18. 14. 6. -3. -11. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 107.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 23.2% 7.0% 2.0% 0.9% 19.3% 19.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 14.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.3% 10.1% 6.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##