* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 08/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 46 46 41 34 27 22 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 43 46 46 41 34 27 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 14 15 14 20 20 17 19 19 15 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 3 0 0 -1 -2 2 2 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 70 66 67 68 75 76 77 71 76 88 93 114 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.0 29.3 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 167 159 153 144 138 135 129 126 122 121 117 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 73 71 73 71 67 64 57 51 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 14 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 52 48 62 55 60 55 68 82 66 70 63 63 200 MB DIV 57 43 51 52 56 51 41 28 13 8 -13 -23 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -6 -8 -3 -1 0 -4 0 3 1 5 LAND (KM) 34 155 283 402 432 549 640 734 869 1112 1342 1611 1861 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.7 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.1 19.9 19.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.7 108.2 109.6 110.9 112.8 114.1 115.9 118.8 122.0 125.0 127.9 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 13 12 7 7 12 15 15 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 28 17 14 17 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -4. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 21. 21. 16. 9. 2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 105.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 5.6% 18.5% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 6.2% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 08/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##