* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 06/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 41 47 51 55 58 61 59 56 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 41 47 51 55 58 61 59 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 43 44 45 44 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 10 11 13 19 22 20 24 23 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 2 3 5 7 3 6 2 3 SHEAR DIR 105 107 96 74 70 60 61 67 67 70 82 79 80 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 153 152 154 157 159 156 152 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 10 7 9 7 9 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 81 79 79 78 75 73 69 66 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 33 30 33 72 84 98 97 93 77 70 57 200 MB DIV 102 89 69 56 63 74 73 71 58 62 33 39 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 214 172 130 97 61 12 54 105 205 313 434 609 741 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.0 95.4 96.3 97.4 98.8 100.6 102.7 105.0 107.3 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 21 18 4 21 25 26 31 20 24 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 4. 3. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 29. 26. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 94.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 06/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -2.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 06/11/17 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING