* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922017 06/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 48 52 53 51 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 38 43 46 47 46 45 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 35 36 37 37 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 13 13 15 17 23 25 30 24 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 1 3 4 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 104 91 100 112 104 84 75 74 74 73 90 93 99 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 154 154 157 158 158 157 157 156 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 77 78 77 76 77 73 70 69 67 65 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 34 28 30 49 68 101 97 88 66 67 76 200 MB DIV 79 80 85 80 65 57 59 53 51 61 62 58 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 211 214 156 88 32 1 39 145 266 390 521 656 764 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.6 12.9 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.9 96.9 98.2 99.7 101.3 102.9 104.5 105.9 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 5 7 8 8 9 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 21 20 19 10 23 26 28 49 48 61 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 23. 27. 28. 26. 26. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 94.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922017 INVEST 06/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922017 INVEST 06/10/17 18 UTC ## ##