* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 39 39 40 39 39 38 36 32 33 41 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 1 4 4 1 5 7 9 5 6 8 SHEAR DIR 210 214 220 221 223 242 249 260 264 257 249 258 244 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 166 166 165 167 169 169 165 160 157 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 7 4 6 4 7 6 9 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 49 47 43 40 39 42 49 44 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 -7 -11 0 -17 -12 -10 -3 -12 -13 5 18 200 MB DIV 51 41 31 22 7 -23 -38 -31 -16 -9 -27 -33 -20 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 4 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 252 236 198 170 149 166 166 145 41 -96 -221 -300 -253 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.2 107.2 107.1 107.3 107.3 107.1 106.1 104.4 102.5 100.5 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 2 2 1 3 7 8 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 42 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -33. -39. -44. -46. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -26. -34. -40. -44. -47. -49. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 107.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##