* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 19 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 23 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 37 41 44 47 48 44 37 32 32 32 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 -3 -5 -3 1 6 8 7 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 232 222 216 218 228 241 261 269 277 270 261 253 243 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 168 170 169 166 164 162 162 161 160 156 154 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 5 6 4 6 4 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 56 53 51 48 46 45 44 46 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 8 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -5 -2 -15 -39 -30 -52 -65 -67 -46 -17 -9 -4 200 MB DIV 44 33 30 22 17 -5 -24 -21 -32 -28 -10 -3 -12 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 283 167 67 -9 0 -108 -173 -230 -221 -215 -258 -246 -191 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 21.6 20.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 106.4 105.9 105.5 105.2 104.3 103.6 103.0 102.5 101.6 100.3 99.0 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 3 4 4 4 5 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 16 42 43 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -16. -28. -39. -46. -50. -50. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -27. -37. -45. -50. -53. -51. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 107.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##