* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 35 33 34 37 42 39 37 31 34 34 36 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 7 5 4 -1 1 1 4 3 2 6 1 SHEAR DIR 213 218 217 215 208 220 227 244 247 252 260 256 250 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 164 165 167 166 167 165 166 169 170 162 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 6 8 6 7 4 6 3 7 700-500 MB RH 70 66 63 60 59 54 47 44 43 45 48 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 23 12 14 -15 -15 -23 -3 -3 4 -4 -8 200 MB DIV 74 56 56 69 58 35 5 -23 -12 -23 -15 3 11 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 6 2 1 0 3 1 2 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 521 436 346 256 184 86 43 83 114 114 30 -105 -356 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.7 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.6 21.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.0 107.5 107.0 106.6 106.2 106.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 105.9 104.2 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 2 1 2 7 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 26 21 18 18 18 19 18 18 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -32. -39. -44. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -32. -37. -42. -45. -44. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##