* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 11/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 31 35 37 39 45 44 42 46 38 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 9 7 7 5 8 8 4 -3 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 239 239 228 226 215 201 207 226 223 228 233 249 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 155 158 162 164 166 168 167 167 166 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 60 61 61 58 55 51 45 41 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 9 7 6 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 28 27 33 35 35 21 14 -23 -19 -32 -14 200 MB DIV 77 61 70 75 91 88 60 23 8 4 -24 -22 -12 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 4 2 3 7 7 2 2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 884 855 835 800 752 653 512 341 192 135 141 165 198 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.8 18.0 19.4 20.5 21.0 20.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.1 111.2 111.1 110.8 110.1 109.0 107.9 107.2 107.0 106.9 107.2 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 4 5 7 8 6 5 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 15 15 18 28 25 22 22 22 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 907 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -15. -24. -34. -42. -47. -47. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -8. -16. -23. -30. -34. -36. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 110.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 11/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##