* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 09/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 47 55 65 73 74 75 70 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 47 55 65 73 74 75 70 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 48 51 50 48 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 7 7 3 7 7 5 2 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -2 -3 2 0 0 4 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 47 60 63 55 109 247 233 221 122 63 105 134 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 157 149 141 135 134 135 134 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 63 62 60 57 57 58 57 55 45 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 16 18 22 25 26 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 10 3 0 9 -5 -12 -23 -44 -36 -15 13 200 MB DIV 22 32 41 40 37 52 49 47 70 17 7 29 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 1 2 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 1194 1220 1204 1165 1136 1128 1160 1272 1368 1372 1264 1195 1247 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 17.7 17.4 18.0 19.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.1 116.0 118.1 120.2 122.2 123.1 122.9 122.1 122.6 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 13 11 7 3 4 6 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 18 26 42 22 22 14 13 16 15 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 15. 20. 19. 19. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 22. 30. 40. 48. 49. 50. 45. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.8% 4.7% 0.5% 0.2% 5.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 0.5% 10.2% 7.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##