* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 08/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 56 63 65 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 56 63 65 65 65 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 46 50 53 55 55 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 9 9 9 5 6 7 5 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 30 45 29 22 11 332 266 279 257 275 274 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.4 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 147 148 143 148 143 145 149 150 142 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 73 71 71 68 67 65 66 64 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -3 -10 -23 -56 -63 -50 -42 -35 -30 -38 -39 200 MB DIV 58 37 34 38 37 32 34 32 26 34 23 17 17 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -2 2 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1091 1140 1206 1234 1276 1454 1637 1882 2112 2316 2023 1752 1501 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.5 113.9 115.5 117.1 120.6 124.0 127.3 130.5 133.4 136.2 138.8 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 18 16 20 19 13 21 28 30 19 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 31. 38. 40. 40. 40. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 111.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 18.3% 15.8% 4.6% 2.2% 13.6% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 16.7% 5.5% 1.3% 0.4% 2.3% 5.1% Consensus: 1.3% 19.5% 12.4% 1.9% 0.8% 5.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 08/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##