* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 06/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 23 21 20 20 23 22 27 31 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 20 22 25 26 26 27 27 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 23 28 24 15 16 10 11 8 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 176 177 176 178 177 184 184 194 158 149 109 142 189 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 171 167 159 158 156 157 157 156 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 9 6 8 7 9 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 64 64 68 72 72 71 71 69 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 4 4 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -5 2 2 24 34 38 42 44 32 45 42 200 MB DIV 85 69 55 42 44 50 66 78 72 121 56 58 27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 0 0 0 2 -2 LAND (KM) 282 186 85 -16 -70 -89 -73 -48 -24 -1 -13 -66 -190 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.0 97.3 96.5 95.6 94.1 93.0 92.7 92.8 93.7 95.0 96.7 98.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 7 4 1 2 5 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 48 37 1 42 44 23 24 24 3 2 18 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -6. -6. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -3. 2. 6. 10. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 98.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 0.6% 9.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##