* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 07/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 51 54 56 57 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 51 54 56 57 55 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 42 44 46 46 47 49 49 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 7 8 5 9 9 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 4 2 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 19 352 346 342 269 264 225 263 230 256 228 246 223 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 159 156 150 151 148 137 141 141 135 135 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 63 63 59 55 51 50 50 49 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -10 -3 2 6 27 22 17 21 18 4 -4 200 MB DIV 27 20 12 29 50 35 52 43 4 11 24 4 12 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 2 7 LAND (KM) 1788 1859 1919 1992 2073 2260 2439 2197 1884 1622 1371 1112 807 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 41 23 13 17 11 7 31 17 8 9 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 25. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 121.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 33.5% 28.3% 21.8% 0.0% 24.9% 27.1% 34.1% Logistic: 24.5% 69.9% 47.8% 41.2% 4.5% 26.1% 6.1% 17.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 26.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% Consensus: 15.0% 43.2% 26.8% 21.5% 1.6% 18.0% 11.7% 17.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##