* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 41 39 36 33 29 25 22 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 41 39 36 34 29 26 23 22 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 39 36 33 31 30 28 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 28 30 32 33 38 35 31 20 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 8 6 6 6 4 -3 1 -3 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 263 264 265 271 276 281 277 281 275 291 303 324 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 136 138 144 148 150 150 149 151 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 26 28 30 31 32 35 37 39 44 49 56 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 44 45 44 52 55 61 59 53 48 44 42 200 MB DIV 2 0 -21 -36 -29 -6 -3 -8 -7 5 -2 6 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -7 -4 -2 0 1 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 373 266 175 50 38 193 341 520 721 933 1165 1385 1590 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.6 19.9 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.9 20.9 21.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 152.0 153.2 154.3 155.6 156.8 159.3 161.6 163.8 166.1 168.5 171.0 173.2 175.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 6 5 6 31 29 37 33 20 26 29 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -24. -29. -32. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -28. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.6 152.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 545.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX